@JonathanMayo @MLBPipeline approximate date for when midseason prospect rankings will be posted?
— Madeline Jolie (@MaxyJprime) July 14, 2016
I'm answering this question officially because it's probably the most often-asked question on Twitter for both myself and Jim Callis. We've each answered it several times, which hasn't kept people from continuing to ask.
So here you go, prospect fans: A full re-rank of all of our lists -- the Top 100, all of the team Top 30s and the Top 10 by position rankings -- is planned for the end of this month, a few days before the Aug. 1 non-waiver Trade Deadline. The idea was to have the updated rankings in place so when prospects are traded at the Deadline, a more current idea of where they stand can be referenced.
From this point forward, if either of us get this question, we will just send you a link to this Inbox answer. Moving on …
OK, not completely moving on. In full disclosure, we haven't finished our process of re-ranking just yet, so this is just my opinion, not necessarily a reflection of what the new Top 100 will look like.
In terms of guys who weren't on the Top 100 to start the season, I'll only consider players who started the year with organizations. In other words, I'm not going to put a 2016 draftee in as my answer to your first question. Looking at guys we've added as replacements, I think Dodgers prospects Cody Bellinger and Alex Verdugo could very well make a big jump once we re-rank. And I'd put the Cubs' Eloy Jimenez -- not currently on the Top 100, but likely to be the next replacement should someone graduate -- on that short list as well.
In terms of players who began the year in the Top 100, I probably would give the nod to the Mets' Amed Rosario. He began the year at No. 79 and is now No. 69 due to the graduations ahead of him. But I could see Rosario leaping up into the top 20 or so when we push the re-rank live.
Typically, the Competitive Balance Lottery has been held in late July. Introduced when the current Collective Bargaining Agreement began in December 2011, the lottery gave teams that have either one of the 10 smallest markets or 10 smallest revenue pools a chance to obtain extra Draft picks. Six picks have been awarded after each of the first and second rounds. Any teams that received revenue-sharing funds that didn't fit in either group of 10 have been added to the mix for the picks following the second round, or Competitive Balance Round B.
I was using past tense because the future of the Lottery is a bit up in the air, because the current Agreement will expire this year and a new one will have to be collectively bargained by Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association. As part of those negotiations, it's possible the format of the Lottery will change in 2017. As a result, both MLB and the MLBPA agreed to postpone the Lottery until Jan. 25, 2017, to give them time to adjust to any changes.
Since you sent in your question, Shawn, Jim Callis tweeted that the Marlins had indeed come to terms with third-round pick Thomas Jones for $1 million. Pick value for the No. 84 selection was $741,700. As I wrote in my preview of Friday's signing deadline, that leaves $4,145,900 of the Marlins' total pool to sign Garrett without incurring any penalties. They could, if needed, go up to five percent over their pool and only get a penalty tax. Anything over five percent would mean forfeiture of a Draft pick, something a team has never done.
Pick value for their first-rounder (No. 7 overall), Braxton Garrett, is $3,756,300. So the Marlins do have some room to play with if they need to go over pick value to get the talented high school lefty. I think there's probably been a waiting game with both Garrett and Jason Groome unsigned. Both are high school lefties, and while Groome was ranked higher on most Draft prospect lists, Garrett did go five spots earlier. So waiting for one to set the so-called market for top prep lefties could be holding this up.
Now that Jones has signed, the Marlins know exactly what they have. I fully expect them to work something out with Garrett, even if it takes right up until the 5 p.m. ET deadline on Friday.