# Hit Probability

### Definition

Introduced before the 2017 season, Hit Probability is a Statcast metric that measures the likelihood that a batted ball will become a hit.

Using exit velocity and launch angle, each batted ball is assigned a percentage based on how often comparable balls have become hits since Statcast was implemented Major League wide in 2015. For instance, a batted ball with a Hit Probability of 70 percent is given that figure because balls with a similar exit velocity and launch angle have become hits seven out of 10 times.

Barreled Balls -- a metric introduced in 2016 -- have a combination of exit velocity and launch angle that results in a minimum Hit Probability of 50 percent, though the Hit Probability of the average Barreled Ball is much higher (82 percent).

##### Why it's useful

Hit Probability tries to get to the heart of what a pitcher and hitter control while attempting to take out the effects of defense and ballpark. Setting aside foot speed for infield hits, a batter's impact on whether the ball was a hit or an out ends as soon as the bat makes contact. Likewise, a pitcher cannot control what happens to a batted ball after it leaves the bat.

With knowledge of the probable outcome of each batted ball, an expected OPS can be created for each player -- factoring in non-contact figures like a player's strikeout and walk rates.

##### Example

Watch: Statcast measures the Hit Probability of round-trippers belted by the Brewers in a six-homer game.