Expected Batting Average (xBA)

Definition

Expected batting average (xBA) is formulated using the Statcast metric Hit Probability, which was introduced before the 2017 season.

With Hit Probability, each batted ball is assigned a percentage based on how often comparable balls -- in terms of exit velocity and launch angle -- have become hits since Statcast was implemented Major League wide in 2015. For example, a batted ball with a Hit Probability of 70 percent is given that figure because balls with a similar exit velocity and launch angle have become hits seven out of 10 times.

Knowing the expected outcomes of each individual batted ball from a particular player over the course of a season allows for the formation of said player's expected batting average on balls in play. Real-world strikeout totals are then added in, resulting in a player's seasonal expected average based on the quality of contact, instead of the actual outcomes. Likewise, this exercise can be done for pitchers to get their expected batting average against.

Why it's useful

Expected batting average is more indicative of a player's skill than regular batting average, as xBA removes defense from the equation. Hitters, and likewise pitchers, are able to influence exit velocity and launch angle but have no control over what happens to a batted ball once it is put into play.

For instance, Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas posted a .240 average in 2016. But based on the quality of his contact, his expected batting average was .294.

 

Example

Watch: Brandon Belt records a batted ball with an expected batting average of .950 that is caught at the wall.